EVOLUTION OF THE FISHER INVESTMENTS INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY
In 1979, Fisher Investments began managing discretionary assets
with a fundamental belief in capitalism and subsequently how free
capital markets function. We start with the simple notion that
supply and demand of securities are the sole determinants of securities
pricing. Correspondingly, we believe capital markets are relatively
efficient discounters of all widely known information. Therefore,
to add value through active management one must identify information
not widely known or interpret widely known information differently
(and correctly) from other market participants.
Throughout our history we have continued to develop capital
markets investment science and technology for the purpose of
generating excess return. In the early 1980s,
Ken Fisher pioneered the use of the Price to Sales Ratio and
detailed its relevance as a tool for investment analysis. We
used this tool to help manage small cap portfolios for institutional
investors. In the mid-1980s, Fisher Investments contributed
to the recognition of distinct investment styles and cycles.
We used these advancements as the foundation for a new series
of broad mandate strategies: Global Total Return, US Total Return
and Foreign Equity. In the mid-1990s we began offering portfolio
management directly to high net worth individuals via our Private
Client Group.
In early 2000, we expanded our services into both Canada and
the United Kingdom. In 2007, Fisher Investments entered into
a joint venture with German money manager Thomas Grüner.
The newly renamed Grüner Fisher Investments GmbH offers
its services to investors in Germany.
Similarly we have dedicated significant resources to the emerging
field of behavioral finance to better understand not only the
tools of finance, but also how investors use those tools. Our
research has led us to develop practical applications of behavioral
finance which currently play an active role in our portfolio
management process.
Research from Fisher Investments has regularly been showcased
in numerous financial journals, including the Financial Analysts
Journal and The Journal of Portfolio Management. In 1984 Ken
began writing the Portfolio Strategy column for Forbes magazine.
He is also a regular contributor to Research magazine. More
recently, Kens 2006 book The Only Three Questions That
Count was named a New York Times Best Seller.
Jeffrey Silk and Andrew Teufel have worked alongside Ken pioneering
investment research since 1983 and 1995, respectively. Together,
the three constitute the firm's
Investment Policy Committee, who make all strategic investment
decisions for the portfolios we manage.
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PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT 101: OUR FUNDAMENTAL PHILOSOPHIES
INTRODUCTION
The foundation of the Fisher Investments investment philosophy
lies in the inherent belief in capitalism in free markets. Driving
that belief are basic economic principles you may be familiar
with, but may not have thought of in the following regard.
Supply and Demand
First is the law of supply and demand, a commonly known concept,
but rarely applied to securities pricing. Supply and demand
for securities are not reflections of contemporaneous events.
The supply of securities is almost completely fixed in the short
run, as it takes time and effort to create new shares. Therefore,
demand is a more indicative variable of short-term market pricing.
By monitoring the demand for securities, we can forecast market
expectations. In the short-term, demand, measured by investor
sentiment, has the most influence on pricing, while over the
long-term, pricing is almost completely a function of supply.
In the long run, supply is the dominant determinant of securities
pricing since their supply is nearly completely variable. There
is no limit to how many shares may be issued or retired. When
the price of securities is low enough, demand becomes infinite
for securities. At a certain price level, supply becomes virtually
infinite, as investment bankers have incentive to create as
much new supply of securities as possible.
An excellent proxy for securities demand is investor sentiment.
Sentiment oscillates constantly, but it usually varies within
a fixed bandwidth. When people anticipate losses, they instinctively
sell and park the proceeds in cash until they feel confident
enough to invest again. When investors are most pessimistic,
they will have already sold, and the next shift in sentiment
by default, is up. Once their selling pressure is exhausted,
a springboard effect takes place when, at marginal prices, there
is suddenly greater pressure to buy than pressure to sell. Prices
can then rise quickly as the previous selling pressure dissipates.
As demand increases, prices rise. On the way up, those who were
most worried and sold their stocks low gradually regain confidence
and begin buying as prices rise. This is the proverbial "wall
of worry" bull markets climb.
Efficient Markets
In conjunction with supply and demand is the theory that markets
are efficientthat capital markets discount, or reflect,
all widely known information. Pertinent information about public
companies is public information. News travels fast, and the
knowledge and expectations of investors are absorbed by the
market as quickly as they are acknowledged. Those seeking to
profit act on every bit of news, rumor, and speculation
that is available, such that any obvious opportunities vanish
before they can be seized. Therefore, one must have new or different
information than all others to achieve excess returns.
Capital Markets Technology
Some of those who believe markets are efficient conclude that
attempting to beat the market is futile. However we think its
possible to add value by interpreting popular information differently
yet correctly, by developing tools to extract new understandings
from this information. About twenty years ago, Ken Fisher pioneered
the Price to Sales Ratio for investment analysis. We have continuously
sought to innovate capital markets science and technology for
the benefit of our clients.
Benchmarks and Relative Return
A common objective of investors is to beat the market, but few
identify a market to beat. Broad equity indexes like the S&P
500 or MSCI World make good proxies for market performance and
hence, a benchmark against which to measure success. However
even when measuring success against a benchmark, some forget
the importance of relative return versus absolute return. Relative
return is the return realized relative to your chosen benchmark.
For instance, 5% may not seem like much in absolute terms, but
if you achieve 5% return on your portfolio when the market is
down 15%, youve beaten the market by 20%. Likewise, a
10% absolute return might sound better, but if the market returns
20%, youd be disappointed for having lagged your benchmark
by 10% in relative terms. We discuss how to choose a benchmark,
and why to use one, in the pages that follow.
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